Monday, December 11, 2006

Ticketless Tory

See that there is a small story in the press today about David Cameron losing his ticket on the way to Wembley. He allegedly got off with buying a new one for £3 rather than paying the £30 fine.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23377830-details/Ticketless%20Cameron%20let%20off%20without%20a%20fine%20on%20the%20Tube/article.do

Ok, so what. Man forgets ticket, ticket collector treats him decently. Big deal.
Except that...

"His spokesman said: "David did buy a ticket. He was even able to produce the receipt for it when he arrived at Wembley Park. ""

Who exactly gets a receipt on the Tube for a £3 ticket when they are travelling for personal reasons? Have you tried to get a receipt on the Tube? Most odd.

Crunch time for Cameron?

I'd keep an eye on Cameron in the coming months.This is make or break time - and it may be coming faster than expected.

His plan has always appeared to be to spend Year 1 re-positioning the Tory Party away from its "nasty" roots by surprising us all with his 'liberal' acts and comments. That his first interview post-elevation as Tory leader was in The Observer has always struck me as a class move. The year since then has been somewhat haphazard - and occasionally disastrous as when ambused by Douglas Alexander who dubbed his comments on youth crime as "hug a hoodie" - but the implicit promise has always been that we should withhold judgement until his policy commissions began to report.

Well, they are beginning to report. The Tax Commission made various suggestions (£21bn in tax and spendings cuts, no suggestion of green taxes) that the leadership recoiled in horror from. Now Iain Duncan-Smith has delivered his views on poverty in Britain and - behind what probably was not a snear at gay families - there are some familiar themes emerging. Family break-down, growing debt, declining social mobility under Labour even as the sums spent on benefits rise inexorably... Good of the Tories to finally catch on to what has been happening to this country that they used to run.

But the challenge for Cameron is where to raise his policy standard. Is it on a liberal position that will increase the number of disaffected Tories turning to UKIP's "commmon sense" and continue the sniping that he has received from the Daily Mail. Or will it be on traditional Tory ground?

The NuTory answer would presumably be the former, but there must be some concern within the senior echelons of the party over the potential disaffection of the rank and file activists. Blair's great triangulation success included a love / hate relationship with the Labour front line: he would alternatively bate them (to satisfy Murdoch / the Daily Mail) and then throw them nuggets like the ban on fox-hunting. Cameron's biggest effort to deliver to the rank and file: pulling the Conservatives out of the EPP Group in the European Parliament ended in tears. Now we hear almost daily reports of unrest in the shires: http://www.libdemvoice.org/more-conservative-candidate-trouble-342.html

And the press are beginning to tire of the 'Cameron is a darling' storyline. Expect more references to Eton; who knows, even some scandal on one of his inner circle? Opinion polls are inconclusive http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/12/11/will-gordons-recovery-be-sustained/ but trending away from a clear Tory victory. Tony always looked like a winner, hence his party stuck with him almost whatever he did. Cameron may never get the luxury of such treatment.

Policy is the right way to judge Cameron - but this moment is fast approaching. I suspect that there will be far less "I don't know"s about him in six months time. If not, he is in trouble.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Pinochet's Death

I suspect that there'll not be many tears - apart from those of Margaret Thatcher - at the death of General Pinochet. What is sad is that he never properly faced justice for the 3,000-odd people who "disappeared" during his dictatorship.

In this country, Pinochet will be remembered for definining the high point of New Labour's "ethical foreign policy" when he was placed under house arrest in the UK. And then the end of it when he was released by Jack Straw.

Friday, December 08, 2006

ID nightmare

Where the Government's new ID database might just take us...
http://www.aclu.org/pizza/images/screen.swf
Make sure that you have the sound turned up.
(hat tip to Iain Dale)

... And for some political balance here's one on the same subject recommended by Labour blogger Recess Monkey
http://eclectech.co.uk/clarkeidcards.php

Camden triumph

Great news for the Liberal Democrats in the Kentish Town bylection where we came through to victory last night. Two key results: Labour's rout continues in Camden, once a flagship Council; recovering from this will be hard. Secondly, the Greens' candidate Sian Berry is their "national principal speaker" [translation: Leader] - so this makes for a pretty high profile defeat.

The full result was:
Ralph Scott (Lib Dem) 1093
Green (Sian Berry) 812
Labour (Reverend Sam McBratney - who I last campaigned against when he lost to the Liberal Democrats in the Bunhill ward in Islington earlier this year) 808
Conservative 198

So well done Ralph and team (amongst many others Ed Fordham, Janet Grauberg, David Simmons, Jeremy Ambache, Dominc Mathon, Pete Dollimore, Nick Russell, Philip Thompson and Patricia Hutton). The campaign had a great feel to it, good literature, massive support from across London (Islington got a special thanks for Marisha Ray's telecanvassing operation) and - it is apparently on the market - the fanciest campaign HQ I have ever seen.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Unsung soldiers of democracy

Running local parties must be one of the least lauded jobs in Britain.

Its hard work. There are (rightly) increasing numbers of checks (especially on the money), some with potential legal implications. Its not as glamorous as being a Councillor, and there is no allowance attached. And if you're a Tory, there's a high chance that CCHQ will come down on you if you fail to live up to their view of the world http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2006/12/cchqs_action_ag.html

I was reminded of this when I attended the London New Local Party Officer training yesterday. I was impressed by both the calibre of the trainers - in the case of Treasurers the estimable David Allworthy - and the enthusiasm of the various participants (its still early days!).

Ultimately getting good local party Execs is critical to both the ability of a party to campaign - but also to the political health of the UK as a whole. They are the ones who sweat to make things happen, who ensure that the right candidates get selected to (ultimately) run the country and whose day-to-day activity keeps the whole democracy show on the road. And these are often the same community-minded people who might also run a local charity or the village fete.

PS I had a follow-on question for David Allworthy today to which he responded incredibly quickly (if not yet with the answer I was hoping for!). This sort of thing makes all the difference when you are a volunteer Treasurer trying to get the fiddly paperwork done in the spare moments between campaigning and the day job. It will mean some extra time for Kentish Town over the next day or two.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

One last push

Another visit to Camden yesterday. One final push - hopefully there'll be something to celebrate this Thursday.

If you can get there to help in the last week of the Council by-election then contact the team at campaign HQ, Flat 17, Apollo Studios, Charlton Kings Road, London, NW5 2SB. The views from HQ make the visit alone worth it.

A year of spin

Its the anniversary of David "call me Dave" Cameron's election as leader of the Tories. Much has been made of both his various PR stunts (some of which have hilariously back-fired such as the chauffeur-driven car that follows his bike to work) and the difficulties Labour appears to be having deciding how to deal with him. As an admirer of Tony he has definitely copied those subtle arts of spin.

He has had an impact in Islington. The rise in Tory support at the last Council Election - although never within a million miles of electing a Tory - definitely helped the Labour Party. Dave promised 'Vote Blue, Get Green'; in Islington that was very clearly a case of 'Vote Blue, Get Red'.

And he has moved some political journalism on from yet another retelling of the latest developments in the ongoing soap opera that is the Tony-Gordon relationship.

However, the simple question that I find it impossible to answer is this: whatever your view on the set of problems facing the next Prime Minister - and there are many - how can the answer ever be someone whose only discernible skill is PR?

Friday, December 01, 2006

World AIDS Day

I used to be an English Language and Literature teacher in a rural school in Zimbabwe. Every morning I used to read out a roll call for my classes, names eagerly answered by kids who might just have run several miles barefoot to be in class.

Since then Zimbabwe has been through a rough patch. But overshadowing the combination of poor weather and disastrous government has been the terrible curse of AIDS. Even when I was teaching there nearly two decades ago we were aware that AIDS was a menace – but now around 1 in 5 people in Zimbabwe are infected with HIV. Today is World AIDS day: http://www.worldaidsday.org/default.asp.

The uniquely devastating impact of AIDS is that it hits the most productive, dynamic and attractive segments of society – quite literally those most able to have multiple sexual partners. So attractive, well educated and rich young people are the group with the highest chance of suffering. Most historical diseases by contrast – like the medieval plagues or the 20th century influenza – would typically cut down the old, the very young and the weak. AIDS does the opposite.

So a country that desperately needs economic development, that has invested so much in the education of its youth faces the tragedy that these are the very ones being cut down. The children I taught were the ones most likely to move to the cities in the hope of getting a job to match their new education, the ones whose lifestyle changes left them most open to this most insidious of killers. And abject misrule means that anti-retroviral drugs that could keep people alive are just not getting through. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2441-2005Apr19.html

A couple of years ago I was working in Africa again and I went back to my old school for a brief visit. It was at the time of an election so signs of Mugabe’s misrule could be seen in scorched patches on the road (from tyre-burning road blocks) and the occasional burst of tear gas as the ZANU-PF Womens’ League rampaged across Harare.

But infinitely more chilling was the huge sign that had been erected over the local township where I had taught. It only had three words: “Coffins For Sale”.

A former student told me of some of the people who had ‘passed away’ – some I knew, some I did not. I dread to think what would happen if I started that roll call today.

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Russian risks

We hosted Pizza and Politics last night. Dr Alan Riley http://www.city.ac.uk/law/LawStaffCVs/alanriley.html came and delivered a most learned speech on the effect of the Russian energy situation. He argued that Putin's Russia is attempting to use her vast reserves of natural gas to build up her great power status and influence over neighbouring countries. The danger for Russia was that a fall in energy prices, possibly compounded by a decline in Russian production driven by under-investment, would greatly weaken Russia. This would be Russia's 'Suez' moment and would help expose her decline as a world power. The impact of that on the country would be bleak.

His paper on this can be downloaded from http://shop.ceps.be/BookDetail.php?item_id=1389


Recent events involving poison have obviously made everyone far more aware of Putin's Russia but I was still delighted by the turn out to discuss the topic. A spirited conversation covered everything from the impact of Russia's energy situation on the rise of China, to the future of Qatar's gas fields, to new technology's impact on the environment to how we could use less energy in Islington.

I am especially concerned about the impact on Russia's democracy. Rising national wealth means that the population are more willing to turn a (short term) eye to the Government's increasing illiberal ways, whilst the sheer volumes of cash associated with natural resources will increase corruption (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse). In Russia this is compounded by the nature of the corporations in the energy industry who have been snapping up the Russian media to make them more biddable to the Kremlin. I used to work with Izvestia - a then-independent Russian newspaper - it is now part of the Gazprom group. That one potential Kremlin candidate for the Presidency is rumoured to be the current Chair of Gazprom (Russia's quasi-Governmental energy titan) tells its own story.

However, Russia's greatest wealth is its people - who are energetic, often embarassingly well-educated and not shy about saying what they think (my wife is Russian...). They will not put up with poor Government for ever. On those grounds at least I am less pessimistic that Alan.

Still the fact that I took away from the meeting was that Russia is estimated to flare (the burning off of surplus gas produced when oil is being pumped from the ground) nearly as much gas as the UK consumes. Thats a lot of energy conservation in Islington...

Monday, November 27, 2006

Afghanistan matters

Had dinner with a couple of (civilian) friends recently returned from Afghanistan, where they have been working in pretty tough circumstances. Not only are there the obvious threats from hostile action - and appalling traffic safety - but there are more insidious dangers. There is little to do but work - so work they do every hour that God gives. When usually energetic people fall asleep on your sofa mid-sentence you know that they may just have been pushing themselves a little bit too hard. Or, alternatively, I really need to brush up on my conversational skills...

Although there is much press concern at recent casualties in both Afghanistan and Iraq it is important that we do not treat the two engagements in a similar way. The Iraq invasion was a misconceived, illegal and foolish act of over-reaching arrogance on the part of the US and UK Governments. In Afghanistan by contrast, there was some justification for external involvement (if nothing else there was a link to September 11th terrorists), and this was a country that desperately needed a fresh chance.

The tragedy is that the urgent race in to Iraq means that we wasted critical years (and resources) better devoted to helping the new Afghan Government. Afghanistan's strong clan system, weak central institutions and multiple (bribe-able) guerilla warlords means that it is a place where to overthrow and replace the central Government is remarkably easy. But to then hold everything together is almost imposible. The Soviets, various warlords including the Taleban and now Americans have discovered this to their peril.

Everything from historical antecedents (one 19th Century British army had but one survivor - a doctor - when they tried to fight their way back to India from Kabul) to what is amongst the most rugged (and beautiful) geographies in the world suggests that we are in in for hard time. But try we must. The last time we abandoned Afghanistan - after they had forced the Soviet withdrawal (and added a pretty huge nail to the coffin of the Eastern Bloc) - we ended up with the rise of the Taleban - and the road to September 11.

The challenge though is to decide what we are aiming to do: is it to stabilise the country, to defeat the drug-traffickers, to destroy what remains of Al-Quadea, to capture Osama bin Laden or to bring development and support to a nation that badly needs it? Clarity on objectives - and a sense of humility and understanding that we can only achieve what the Afghan people want us to achieve - is vital if this is not to turn in to another Iraq.

The Council can manage Housing, Only Gov can fix it

As a Liberal I welcome diversity. And Islington is one of the most diverse places in London, possibly the world. But it is possible to have too much of a good thing.

As the Guardian reminded us last Friday http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1955770,00.html the rising cost of private housing and the shortages of social housing mean there is a real divide opening up in the borough. On current trends only richer and richer people can afford to move in to new private homes (although the costs of mortgages mean that they get considerably poorer). Meanwhile the point system run by Islington Council rightly rewards those most in need, those furthest away from the average. So Islington gets more 'diverse' - read 'divided'.

This is exacerbated by the refusal of successive Governments (Tory and Labour) to fund renewed Council house building. Those that do go up are usually the end result of developers being forced by the Council to build them as part of planning permission (now expected to be 50% of new units for developments over 10-units large).

All this means that the Islington I grew up in - with lots of people "in the middle" - is increasingly far away. And this is true all across London - the net effect of being a key hub in the global economy (with huge increases in the numbers of wealthy people from all over the world attracted to the City), strong limits on housing development and poor transport links (which mean that everyone wants to live as close to the centre as possible).

The Council does what it can. According to Terry Stacy, responsible for housing on the Council, there is no one in temporary accomodation and key public sector workers are OK. Although the Council point system rewards those who grew up here it is only a way of rationing what there is a shortage of: housing. We still have 13,000 people on the waiting list for better accomodation. And only the Government has the financial clout to deal with that.

I am lucky, I can afford to remain in Islington. Many others who grew up here cannot - and that is not good enough. Islington needs a Liberal MP who will fight for proper Government investment in new housing stock. And a little less diversity.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

View from the top

Visited the Camden Council byelection again today. I went to a nearby comprehensive so its good to go back to the neighbourhood. A good candidate, a great team and the most amazing campaign headquarters perched on the rooftops of London. Also a real chance to build on all the great work that the new Camden Council are up to.

Friday, November 24, 2006

Write to your MP, maybe

Our local New Labour lawyer MP, Emily Thornberry, is not yet famous for her love of hard work. http://www.writetothem.com/stats/2005/mps is a site that allows people to write to their MP - and get an answer.

Their published statistics for 2005 show that Emily managed to come 679th amongst the MPs for her ability to reply to letters. And they only ranked 687 of them...
Even Tony Blair - for this at least he has an excuse - managed to pip her to the post at 678th.

This means that she answered 8.9% of the 152 letters she received within 2-3 weeks. Not quite sure what she spent £13,169 of postage and stationery on then for last year's expenses. Anyone have any ideas?

Tory Campaign To**er

You could not make it up.

The rise in personal debt is a really important issue that Vince Cable, the LibDem Shadow Chancellor, has been campaigning about since before the last Election. As with many LibDem issues the Tories have recently caught up with it and - in typical Notting Hill style - have launched a "Toss out the Tosser Inside" web campaign at http://www.sort-it.co.uk/

According to the Press Association report, cited by Iain Dale http://iaindale.blogspot.com/:

"David Buonaguidi, creative director of Karmarama - the advertising agency which created the film - said: "Every Christmas we toss away millions of pounds on things we don't really want or need. We wanted to confront people with this behaviour and help them realise that this kind of spending just isn't very smart. "The Tosser Inside is a wake-up call designed to appeal to an audience that usually screens out this sort of message.""

What exactly does Mr Buonaguidi think that he is in advertising to do?

Letter in the gazette

I had another letter published in the Isligton Gazette this week, talking about the November 15th article in the Evening Standard about rises in London Council tax. Apparently it has risen by 86 percent in the past decade - which is more than double the rise in pay over the same period.

What the sidebar added was that Islington Council has had the second lowest rise in London over that period - coming in at 37.2%. Labour controlled Camden was 65.6% and Hackney was 43.8%. Just shows how sensible management can make life more bearable for the people of Islington. According to these numbers Islington Council tax grew more slowly than pay rises.

Friday, November 03, 2006

A world of haves and have nots

I'd like to recommend the Gapminder website. This includes a brilliant presentation that lays out the huge development gaps that continue to plague the developing world.

http://www.gapminder.org/

It illustrates two things very clearly:

As East Asia pulls itself forward through rapid economic expansion (the largest single surge out of poverty in a single generation that history has ever seen) the development challenge is increasingly focused on Africa. I used to work as a teacher in rural Zimbabwe. This was a hands-on education on both the path forward for Africa (increased education, a diversified economy backed up by clear ownership rights, the roll out of basic health provision, provision of clean water and enough infrastructure to allow access to markets and services for all) and the challenges (particularly governance issues in the form of an increasingly corrupt and autocratic governing elite, the dangers of foreign entanglements - i.e. the civil war in the Congo in search of plunder - but also the external factors of world commodity prices and poor weather that can hit agriculture- based economies). The world owes Africa all the help it can get. But African leaders owe their people even more.

The second thing it shows is that differences (economic and health) within countries are at least as large as those between countries. The income differential between the bottom 20% and the top 20% in Namibia, for example, is the same as that between Sierra Leone (one of the world's poorest, war-torn countries) and Japan (where robots are increasingly being primed to take over household duties). I remember hitch-hiking on UN vehicles through the beauty of Namibia as it got its Independence from South Africa; its sad that that so much remains to be done.

What strikes me even closer to home though is that in Islington we face the same issue: the rich are getting richer and the poor, poorer. Tony Blair's Government has presided over increasing wealth disparity. It never was right in Zimbabwe - and it sure is not going to create a healthy society in the UK.

I look forward to a UK version of gapminder.com.